The Iranian regime is fighting for its survival
The popular uprising that broke out in Iran following the murder of a Kurdish girl detained because of her attire is growing in scope. For the first time in decades, the nation's influential bazaar is putting on its fighting boots and supporting the rebels. Iranian leaders are concerned about the regime's collapse and even the potential division of the country, as the Iranian Kurdish districts are on fire.
The likelihood of the Islamic Republic falling has been the subject of reports in the Western and Israeli news over the last twenty-four hours. The Iranian government which is trying to supress the current rebellion is using many deceptions, including the suggestion that the vice police would be abolished. The Western media keenly follow the regime's actions and the uprising's development.
The revolt spreads, the Mullahs are worried
Over two months after Mahsa Amani's passing, the Iranian rebellion is still going strong, according to France.tv, despite the regime's ruthless suppression and use of lethal force. Far from showing any sign of fading down, the protest wave is stoking unrest within the regime.
A popular uprising against the oppressive Islamic Republic government has been going on in Iran for the past few months. This uprising has been spearheaded primarily by women refusing to wear the hijab which utilize symbolic actions such as burning their scarfs or waving them about in the air. According to human rights advocates, at least 326 people have died, including about 50 children, and over 14,000 others have been arrested. However, these numbers are far from accurate.
In the above context, Christopher de Bellaigue underlines that "this movement without a name, without a leader, is diverse and adaptable. It has harnessed a vast and hitherto under-exploited resource – the latent dissatisfaction of women at their second-class status – and turned it into a powerful asset. And it has already scored a success, albeit a reversible one. For the first time since the revolution's early days, significant numbers of women aren't wearing any form of hijab".
"Besides the social radicalism that female protesters bring to the movement, its other novelty is its youthfulness. From older Iranians – the ones who stay at home worrying about their protesting children or who reluctantly accompany them, hoping to steer them out of harm's way – one often hears the phrase; the fear has evaporated", stresses the writer who also adds: "The protesters' avowed aim is regime change, but in the Islamic Republic of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei they face a formidable foe. Khamenei's Iran is a state built on an idea – of a Shia cleric enacting God's will on earth – that has seen communism and senses that capitalism is in terminal decline. This idea is on the march even now. (Nevertheless) if the Iranian opposition has so far been divided and easily suppressed, this is where the current movement marks a significant departure from its predecessors. Whether by instinct or consensus, the groups now pressing for the Islamic Republic's demise have presented a unified front".
Cautious optimism over the likelihood of the public uprising's success
Salem Alketbi shares Bellaigue's cautious optimism over the likelihood of the public uprising's success and the overthrow of the Iranian regime in his analysis, which was carried by the Israeli newspaper "The Jerusalem Post." The author notes that this time, "what is unusual is that there is the discussion of partition plans, civil war, ruining and breaking up the country and other things that Iranian authorities have not addressed before."
"Traders have shown solidarity with the popular anger. This is an important change because these traders are a mainstay of the system. There are also credible reports of disagreements within the Iranian regime on how to deal with the protests," adds Alketbi. According to the analyst, "The fact that the Iranian regime has moved to talk of civil war and the division of the country suggests that there are dangerous signs in this direction. The mullahs are concerned that this scenario may occur not because it is supported from the outside, but mainly because of the regime's internal policies against minorities among the Iranian people."
Alketbi comes to the following conclusion regarding the potential resolution of the Iranian crisis: "This danger is exacerbated by the fact that rather than trying to promote a policy of coexistence, the regime deepens the idea of division by targeting certain minorities and pitting ethnicities against each other. The tyranny of political sectarianism weighs so heavily on the country that the entire population is put under severe and explosive pressure through a lack of minority rights, exclusionary policies, repression, persecution, forced integration plans, and so on. Undoubtedly, these facts reflect the growing unease of the Iranian regime; things have not yet reached the limits of stability and regaining control in the foreseeable future. Importantly, the Iranian regime may try to divert attention and export the crisis abroad after fabricating one or more foreign crises to divide opponents, prove a foreign conspiracy scenario, and use the opportunity to suppress escalating popular anger instead of focusing on what is happening inside Iran from the outside."
The Islamic Republic utilizes every trick in the book
Battling for its life, the Islamic Republic utilizes every trick in the book, including statements and actions meant to disorient the opponents. One of these tricks first surfaced on Sunday when conflicting information regarding the vice squad's potential dissolution leaked out of Tehran to the international media. By the end of 2022, all likely outcomes are on the table in Tehran, according to Western and Middle Eastern observers.
The "morality police" would never be abolished, claims scholar Walter Posch. According to the scholar, the translation of the related announcement by the Western press was incorrect. Only that their patrols would be suspended temporarily was announced. This had repeatedly occurred in the past to appease liberal circles.
Posch further emphasizes the fallacy of the term "morality police" which adheres to the Qur'anic maxim of commanding the good and forbidding the bad. The scholar notes that the state police does not have control over this “police” force and therefore its existence is essentially a political group.
Posch and political analyst Fathollah Nejad think the attorney general's comments on abolishing the morality police were ambiguous. Nejad claims that no "legal decision" has been made. It is, in his opinion, a "quite apparent deception" designed to lessen pressure from abroad and divert attention away from the continuing mass strike.
Gilda Sahebi, a journalist, speculates that remarks made by Iran's attorney general may have been misinterpreted. He had just wished to make it plain that the judiciary was not in charge of the morality police, in her opinion. The journalist emphasizes how the Iranian government consciously disseminates false information on social media. For instance, there are a lot of supporters of the regime on Twitter who post and share propaganda materials. According to Sahebi, the "morality police" case was "a test balloon." The regime aimed to gauge how much the international press still believed the regime.