Ancient philosopher Lao Tzu once said, "There is no greater danger than underestimating your opponent." This is exactly what the opposition is doing in Turkey now. They underestimate Erdoğan's ability to win elections. They underestimate his appeal to the people. They fail to see his superb abilities when it comes to taking out new rabbits from his hat.

And if the opposition is to lose the upcoming elections, the fact that they underestimate Erdogan will be one of the main reasons that get us into this last minute disaster for all those who wish to see and end to the Erdogan era and for Turkish democracy to start recovering.

How do I know the opposition underestimates Erdogan abilities? I observe the speeches of opposition figures in public and I also talk to them one to one. I asked one of the high-ranked politicians from CHP, the main opposition party, whether he sees any risk in nominating their leader as the candidate of opposition against Erdogan in the upcoming presidential elections. After all, almost all surveys conducted show that Kilicdaroglu is the third best candidate against Erdogan, after the mayors Istanbul and Ankara, Imamoğlu and Yavaş respectively.

These elections are a matter of life and death for democracy in Turkey, I commented and asked: "Would it not be better to go to elections with the most powerful candidate?" He replied by saying: "The economy is in a terrible shape right now, it does not matter who the candidate is; when six opposition leaders are united behind a candidate, they will win!"

I would like to draw your attention to the fact that they do not say Kilicdaroğlu is the best candidate, or that Kilicdaroglu will do this or that to eventually win most of the votes. They are not talking about winning; they are just talking about how Erdoğan has already lost! But has he?

I do not think so! Some recent polls tell us that the governing party started to increase its votes and that those who were disenchanted with it are starting to go back. Turkish opposition seems to forget what happened in Hungary, where six opposition parties (like what exactly is happening right now in Turkey) united against Victor Orban and they still lost.

My response to the opposition figure was this: I do not agree with everything CHP does, but I do believe your existence creates somehow a kind of balancing factor against this authoritarian regime. If you put forth your leader, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, as your presidential candidate, and you lose; then you will lose everything. CHP will be shattered. Most probably we will not see a united single CHP and it will be broken into small pieces. We would not see such a disaster if Imamoglu or Yavas are nominated as the candidate and lose. That is because in this case, Kilicdaroglu will still be leading the CHP and the party will continue its mandate as the opposition. But if Kilicdaroglu loses, you will lose everything. 

After all these comments, I asked the opposition figure if he sees any sense of urgency within the grassroots of the CHP regarding the possibility of losing the elections. He reiterated that they would win the elections. My question had the answer hidden within. I cannot see this sense of urgency on the side of the opposition. They are relaxed as if we are heading towards an ordinary election and as if its results will not matter all that much to Turkey.

So, on the one hand, we have a government and a president who think they will be devastated if they lose the elections, (not only they will lose all the privileges they have been enjoying for the last 20 years but they will probably face trials for all the irregularities and the alleged corruption at all levels) while on the other hand we have an opposition who thinks that they will win these elections effortlessly.

Erdogan already started to pump hope into large segments of society. Cheap houses, increased salaries, low-interest rates for consumers and so many other rabbits have either started to or will start to come out of his hat soon. Everything will be designed to create an illusion that Turkey is overcoming its economic crisis, which is the one single element on which the opposition lays its hopes to win the elections.

Add to these other factors: a) Surveys do not include votes coming from abroad where Erdogan has a stronger support base; b) some irregularities in vote count will take place (do not forget for example that there was a huge gap between what Ankara opposition Mayor received in the local elections and what the surveys had predicted him to get, namely he should have received many more votes); c) Some possible last moment fights amongst the opposition figures on certain issues such as Kurdish matters (For some of them putting distance between the Kurds and themselves is more important than winning the elections) d) Terror attacks when we get closer to elections that will lead conservative votes to unite behind the governing party (as we witnessed before in the year 2015) e) Many other surprises that will benefit the government.

I am not saying all this to suggest that the opposition will lose these elections. Currently, everything works to their favor. Yet, if they lose these extremely critical elections, this will be because of the factors I mentioned above. They are making the deadly mistake of underestimating their opponent and this mistake may have fatal consequences for everyone concerned.