Turkey’s inflation to stand at 43.2% at the end of 2023 - poll

Turkey’s inflation to stand at 43.2% at the end of 2023 - poll
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Despite the Turkish government’s pledges to lower inflation to 20% next year, a Reuters poll suggested inflation in Turkey will drop only to 43.2%

Turkey's annual inflation is expected to fall sharply to 66.8% in December due to a favorable base effect but drop only to 43.2% by the end of 2023, a Reuters poll showed on Wednesday, while Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan vowed to bring down the inflation to 20% next year.

The end-2023 forecast is nearly twice that of the government, and raises the prospect of continued cost-of-living strains as Turks vote in tight presidential and parliamentary elections next year.

At the end of 17 month rally, Turkish inflation peaked around 85.5%, a 24-year high in October, then dropped slightly last month, a trend expected to continue in December and in the first quarter of the year, when the surge in prices in the same period last year spells relief for this year's annual inflation calculation.

A median estimate of eight economists in the Reuters poll suggested inflation dropping only to 43.2% with forecasts ranging between 33% and 48%.

Renowned economist Jeffrey Sachs from Columbia University also said last week that inflation in Turkey will remain high throughout 2023 due to many reasons including the war in Ukraine, the upcoming elections, unconventional macroeconomic policy and difficult relations with international credit rating agencies and with global investors.

The Turkish Statistical Institute is scheduled to announce December inflation data at 0700 GMT on Jan. 3.