44.5% of respondents to vote for Kilicdaroglu according to March election survey in Turkey

ROZERIN YUKSEL- As the May 14 elections were on the horizon, Turkey was shaken by the Maras-centered earthquakes in which over 50,000 people lost their lives. The percentage of votes going to the government, responsible for the extent of the destruction in the disaster, changed as a result. Ozer Sencar, the founder of MetroPoll Research Company, interpreted the effects of the earthquake on the election and the latest survey results for GercekNews.

“THE AKP LOST 5 POINTS FOLLOWING THE EARTHQUAKE”

Noting that only the Justice and Development Party (AKP) was impacted by changing voter behavior following the earthquake, Ozer Sencar said, “After the earthquake, votes to the AKP decreased by 5 points. The vote rate of the People's Alliance dropped from 47% in January to 42% in March. According to the March survey, the Nation Alliance has a 37% share of votes, excluding HDP or other small parties.”

“KILICDAROGLU'S RATING IS 2.5 POINTS HIGHER”

“When we asked respondents in January whether they would vote for Kilicdaroglu or for Erdogan in an election, those who said they would vote for Erdogan were 46% while those who would vote for Kilicdaroglu were 43%. In March, Erdogan’s vote rate decreased from 46% to 42%, while Kilicdaroglu’s rate rose to 44.5%. As of today, Kilicdaroglu’s share of the vote is more than Erdogan’s by 2.5 points."

Explaining the reasons for the change in the vote rate, Sencar said, “Erdogan lost votes due to economic reasons and the destruction caused by the earthquake. The factor affecting Kemal Kilicdaroglu’s vote rate may have been Meral Aksener’s acceptance of his candidacy and Mansur Yavas and Ekrem Imamoglu’s acceptance of roles as vice presidents, which may have had a positive effect on voters.

“THE CHP HAS NOT DEMONSTRATED ENOUGH SUCCESS IN ELECTION SECURITY”

“The 44.5% votes received by the Republican People’s Party (CHP) includes the votes of 83% of HDP members and the votes of 78% of Good Party members. If we had given respondents the choice of voting for the HDP, this rate would probably have decreased by 7-8 points and Kilicdaroglu’s vote rate would have decreased. In our survey, 13% did not vote for either Kilicdaroglu or Erdogan. Kilicdaroglu must get at least 6 points out of the remaining 13 points in order to carry his vote rate to 51%. The more opposition voters vote for Kilicdaroglu, the closer his share gets to 50.”

Stating that the results of the research are only valid if there is a free and fair election, Sencar also emphasized the importance of election and ballot box integrity by saying, "Until now, CHP has not been sufficiently successful in terms of ballot box and election integrity."

“THE AKP AND MHP BASE DOES NOT HOLD THE GOVERNMENT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE EARTHQUAKE”

Evaluating the survey in which the polling company asked the public who they held responsible for the earthquake, Sencar said, “The voters hold the government responsible for the earthquake, with the exception of the AKP and MHP (Nationalist Movement Party) voters. AKP voters tend to see the AKP as faultless because they are very loyal to Erdogan. Earthquakes cannot be prevented, but neither the government cannot evade culpability by claiming the disaster came from God. Unregulated buildings are being built and the governing body determines the regulatory rules. Therefore, the voters friendly to the government accept Erdogan's rhetoric of ‘It came from God, we have no responsibility’ as a valid excuse” while opposition voters who believe “the government did not take the necessary precautions” contribute to Erdogan’s loss in the share of votes.

“HDP AND HUDA-PAR ARE ELEMENTS THAT THE OPPOSITION AND THE GOVERNMENT CAN USE”

Sencar stated that a majority of the electorate does not believe that the opposition can govern the country successfully, and that the opposition must disprove this perception:

"From now on, Erdogan's strategy is to spread to the public his propaganda that 'we will cover the damage caused by the earthquake.’ They can also raise wages for civil servants and workers in April. Erdogan needs to convince his own base and the voters with AKP-MHP origins who are currently undecided. There are 13% undecided voters, 6% of this number previously voted for the AKP-MHP. HDP and HUDA-PAR are also elements that the opposition and the government can both use, but their efficiency will be impacted by their discourse and the form of propaganda.”