Istanbul under high risk of a major tremor in 7 years: Top seismologist
Seismologist Dogan Kalafat, the head of Turkey’s Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute has warned that Istanbul may face a massive earthquake with a magnitude of above 7.0 by 2030.
The risk of such a tremor is 64 percent, Prof. Kalafat told Haber Global on Tuesday.
7 sene içerisinde yüzde 64 olasılıkla İstanbul'da 7'nin üzerinde bir deprem olacak.— Haber Global (@HaberGlobal) February 21, 2023
—Kandilli Rasathanesi Deprem Araştırma Enstitüsü Müdürü Prof. Dr. Doğan Kalafat. pic.twitter.com/mJi6v4emKH
Following the twin earthquakes that hit Turkey’s southeast on Feb.6, claiming more than 42,000 lives, eyes turned to the country’s largest city of Istanbul, home to around 16 million residents.
Istanbul is located close to the North Anatolian fault line that has a potential to produce quakes with the magnitude of 7.0 and above, according to the experts.
"An earthquake originating from the Sea of Marmara may occur in the central part of the North Anatolian fault line. An arm passing through the Sea of Marmara will produce an earthquake with a magnitude of above 7.0,” Kalafat said.
“We know the place, but we cannot tell when. There are only statistical studies we can do. This shows a 64 percent probability by 2030, a 75 percent probability by 2050, and a 95 percent probability by 2090,” he said.