Erdogan’s declining rate in polls slows down, former head of leading pollster says
The loss of the vote share of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) at the latest polls has slowed down, said Bekir Agirdir, the former head of Turkish pollster KONDA.
Erdogan's public support has declined to a certain threshold and now resisting at that point, due to the emotional loyalty of his electorate, Agirdir told journalist Fatih Altayli in a live broadcast on HaberTurk TV on Wednesday.
Erdogan is facing presidential and parliamentary elections in June 2023 at the latest, amid a decline in his approval ratings due to the economic woes in Turkey. According to a June survey by MetroPoll, a Turkish polling firm, Erdogan has the support of 40 percent of Turkish voters, lacking the backing of the majority.
Erdogan who formally announced his presidential candidacy for re-election to a third consecutive term in June, has the support of his far-right governing ally, Nationalist Movement Party (MHP). The AKP-MHP alliance won a combined of 54 percent of the votes at the previous general elections held in 2018, with a 43 percent and 11 percent vote share, respectively.
“Although there are some fluctuations, we do not see that the opposition has made a serious leap, according to the latest polls,” Agirdir said.
The electorate who pulled off their support from the governing ally, has yet to join the opposition front in large numbers, Agirdir said.
“There is a large proportion of undecided votes,” he said.
Six opposition parties including the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) which are working on putting forward a joint name to run against Erdogan at the elections, are yet to declare a candidate.
On Monday, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the head of CHP reiterated his willingness to run as a candidate should the table of six parties agree on his name.
The polls show a trend, but the result of the election mainly depends on how the political actors will proceed in the upcoming period, Agirdir said.
“If the CHP and the six-party table can produce the right strategies in this process, there is a possibility of Kilicdaroglu winning the election against Erdogan,” he said.