Prominent pollster sees little chance for Erdogan's victory

Prominent pollster sees little chance for Erdogan's victory
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The former head of the Konda polling institute, Bekir Agirdir said President Tayyip Erdogan still has a small chance of winning the upcoming elections, but it will be very difficult for him to get majority support in the Grand Assembly.

A prominent pollster in Turkey said that President Tayyip Erdogan could still win the upcoming elections, even if only narrowly, but it would be very difficult for his People’s Alliance (Justice and Development Party plus Nationalist Movement Party) to get a majority of deputies in parliament.

"It would not be right to think that the earthquake will not have an impact on political decisions. What will be decisive for the election outcome will be the opposition's stance and its roadmap," former head of Konda Research Bekir Agirdir said.

President Tayyip Erdogan on Wednesday said that elections will be held on May 14, sticking to his previous plan for the vote with a date just over three months after a devastating earthquake killed more than 45,000 people in Turkey.

Before the disaster, Erdogan's popularity had been eroded in recent years by soaring inflation and a slump in the lira which hit living standards, although some opinion polls in recent months had shown signs of a pick-up in his support.

According to Agirdir, if there is a prevailing fear among the population that a change in government could jeopardize survival and this leads to security-oriented decisions, there is a possibility that people will move toward the bloc that they believe represents the State.

He added:

“For the opposition, it can be a shortcoming to have a discourse based only on people. The opposition must promise greater vision and change. The post-pandemic problems, the economic crisis in Turkey, the wars and crises in the world continue. On top of that, there is the earthquake disaster. We need a bigger story and a vision to get out of this mess safely. But unfortunately, the opposition has not yet provided this picture.”