Who Good Party voters would support in a runoff?

While there is no recent poll in Turkey that would provide insight into the possible voting behavior of Good Party supporters in the coming elections following the apparent withdrawal of the party from the opposition bloc, a 2021 poll offers at least some clues.

After nationalist Good Party's leader Meral Aksener said on Friday that the party has been imposed a fait accompli by the proposed presidential nomination of main opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu, that personal agendas and ambitions have taken precedence over national interests, and that the expectations of the people are no longer reflected in the bloc's decisions, this led to questions as to how the fracture in the bloc will impact Good Party's voter base.

In the two days following Aksener's remarks, only a Good Party deputy dared comment on what the party was likely to do in case the presidential election goes to runoff, with Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Kemal Kilicadroglu competing in the second round.

Deputy Feridun Bahsi said in a live broadcast that they would most likely support Kilicdaroglu against Erdogan.

Sinan Ogan, a former deputy for the far right Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and once an influential figure in ultra-nationalist circles, said however that Good Party was likely to step into an alliance with Edogan's Justice and Development Party (AKP) after the elections.

The chief advisor for Aksener, Aytun Ciray, reacted to Ogan saying, "You are a slanderer if you cannot prove this."

Aside from what Good Party's leadership will choose to do before or after the elections, the question remains as to which side Good Party's voters will feel inclined to support in the runoff.

A poll conducted in May 2021 by MetroPOLL suggests that Kilicdaroglu's Republican People's Party (CHP) is the second choice for over a third of Good Party supporters.

Asked which party they would vote for in case they were not able, for some reason, to vote for their first choice, 34.7% of Good Party supporters said they would vote for CHP, while 3.7% said they would vote for AKP, 3.2% for the Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP), 2.6% for MHP. 35.8% said they do not have a second choice, and 14.2% declined to reply or said they do not have an opinion.